POTSDAM, GERMANY / RankWire.AI / – New research indicates that climate change could lead to almost a threefold increase in annual wildfires across Europe by 2100. The study forecasts a 192% rise in burned land if high-emissions scenarios unfold, associated with approximately 3.6°C of global temperature increase. This research follows recent major wildfires in 2026 impacting regions of Belgium, France, Greece, Portugal, and Spain. The analysis emphasizes that hot, dry, and windy conditions remain the primary climatic factors influencing fire activity.
Published in Global Change Biology, the study employed two fire models integrated with the LPJmL vegetation model. Researchers examined a low-emissions pathway, SSP1-2.6, and a high-emissions pathway, SSP3-7.0. The lower scenario correlates with roughly 1.8°C of warming, while the higher reaches about 3.6°C. Socioeconomic variables were kept constant in separate experiments to better understand their impact on wildfire dynamics.
The model results under the lower-emissions scenario suggest about a 39% increase in annual burned land by the century’s end. One model projected this rise, while another indicated a potential decrease, reflecting different interpretations of historical human influence. Conversely, the high-emissions pathway indicates significantly larger increases, with the most notable expansion around the Mediterranean and much of Western and Central Europe—regions that historically experienced relatively limited fire activity.
Models link emissions levels to extent of burned land
The findings reveal that future wildfire activity across Europe is heavily influenced by fire weather conditions and firefighting capabilities. Factors such as population density, shifts in vegetation, and land use changes also play a role, especially at regional scales. The lead author, Maik Billing, from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, explains that the study distinguishes between climate-driven fire weather and human factors affecting the spread of fires.
Enhancements in fire prevention, early detection, and suppression efforts could reduce the burned area by between 72% and 92% compared to scenarios lacking such improvements. These reductions are more significant under the lower-emissions pathway and less so when warming is more extreme. Despite ongoing advancements in fire management, approximately 55% of Europe’s fire-prone regions could still see an increase in fire activity under severe climate change, according to co-author Thomas Hickler from the Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre in Germany.
Effective fire management strategies can help curb wildfire expansion
This research arrives amidst a particularly intense wildfire season in Europe in 2026, marked by dry conditions and record-breaking heat, which sparked extensive fires. While southern parts of Europe faced some of the most critical outbreaks, fires also spread further north. The study’s projections extend beyond the Mediterranean, showing increased fire activity throughout Western and Central Europe. Experts suggest these patterns reflect evolving fire weather conditions driven by rising temperatures and prolonged dry spells.
The study emphasizes that the projected 192% increase is not an unavoidable fate. It is a modeled outcome based on the high-emissions pathway and the assumptions made in the analysis. Researchers identified that lower emissions scenarios could result in substantially smaller increases, especially if fire management practices improve significantly. Nonetheless, even with progress in firefighting and prevention, fire activity could still grow in many regions under stronger warming. Ultimately, the study highlights emissions, fire weather, and fire management capacity as crucial factors shaping Europe’s future wildfire landscape.