GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has elevated its 2026 forecast for worldwide merchandise trade expansion to 3.9 percent, marking a notable rise from the 1.9 percent projection issued in March. The organization attributed this upward revision to robust trade activity in the first half of the year, supply chain realignments, and increased investment in artificial intelligence. Despite significant disruptions in energy, transportation, and fertilizer sectors, merchandise trade volume expanded by 3.5 percent during the initial half of 2026. Looking ahead, the WTO now predicts merchandise trade will grow by 4.1 percent in 2027.
Demand driven by artificial intelligence has become a prominent factor fueling merchandise trade growth in the first half. Goods enabled by AI, such as semiconductors and servers, contributed to 47 percent of global merchandise trade growth, with their trade volume increasing by 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO also indicated that global expenditure on AI infrastructure is expected to rise by at least 30 percent in 2026. The high demand for computing hardware played a vital role in supporting trade, even as other sectors faced interruptions caused by conflicts and transportation restrictions.
Adjustments in global supply chains also reflected the pressure across key commodity and shipping markets. Crude oil exports from the Middle East decreased by approximately 24 percent during the first half of 2026, while liquefied natural gas exports from the region declined by 47 percent in the same period. However, increased shipments from alternative suppliers limited the overall decline in crude oil exports to about 6 percent globally. Meanwhile, LNG exports worldwide fell by only 1 percent. Container throughput across the globe grew by 3.9 percent through July, supported by trade rerouting through alternative ports and routes.
AI-enabled goods bolster worldwide merchandise trade
The more optimistic outlook for goods contrasts with more subdued expectations for commercial services trade. The WTO has reduced its 2026 growth forecast for services trade volume from 4.8 percent in March to 3.3 percent. Disruptions in the Middle East have exerted additional pressure on transport and international travel. In the second quarter, international tourist arrivals decreased by 0.8 percent. Overall, the first-half increase was only 0.4 percent. Growth in travel-related expenditure also slowed sharply between the first and second quarters.
Despite this, other service sectors experienced stronger growth. Exports of computer services increased by 18 percent from the previous year in the first quarter, with second-quarter growth estimated at 12 percent. Financial services exports also rose by 14 percent year-over-year in the second quarter. The WTO projects a 6.4 percent growth in commercial services trade volume for 2027 and anticipates global GDP will grow by 2.6 percent in 2026, followed by 2.9 percent next year.
Trade growth varies significantly across regions
Regional forecasts for merchandise trade reveal considerable disparities worldwide. The WTO anticipates Asia will lead with a 9.9 percent increase in exports in 2026. North American exports are expected to grow by 5.7 percent, while Africa’s exports are projected at 5.6 percent. South America is forecasted to see a 3.4 percent rise, whereas Europe might experience a slight decline of 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the steepest contraction, with merchandise exports predicted to fall by 17.2 percent during the year.
Similarly, regional import growth varies sharply. Asia is expected to see merchandise imports rise by 9.5 percent, and Africa by 8.9 percent. Imports into North America are forecasted to increase by 1.4 percent, with Europe expected to grow by 0.5 percent. Conversely, imports into the Middle East are projected to drop by 15.4 percent. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala emphasized that the latest data demonstrate trade resilience, even as they underscore the uneven impact of geopolitical and economic disruptions across different regions.