MOSCOW, RUSSIA / RankWire.AI / – Russia has established a target of producing 662 million tonnes of coal annually by 2050 as part of a newly endorsed industry development plan. This target is incorporated within the scenario outlined in Russia’s revised coal expansion strategy. In 2024, coal production was approximately 443 million tonnes. The government approved the plan through Order No. 2606-r on September 22, setting long-term benchmarks for production, exports, and sector growth.
The strategy presents four potential pathways for the coal industry up to 2050. Under the primary target scenario, output reaches 530.1 million tonnes by 2030 and climbs to 595.2 million tonnes by 2036, ultimately hitting 662 million tonnes by 2050. The alternative scenarios predict lower production levels in 2050, ranging from 318.9 million tonnes in the stress case to 586.4 million tonnes in the inertial case.
Alongside production goals, export targets have also been set. The primary scenario projects coal exports reaching 266.7 million tonnes in 2030, increasing to 320.2 million tonnes in 2036 and 350.1 million tonnes by 2050. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak noted that Russian coal exports grew by 7.2% during the first eight months of 2026. The plan accounts for domestic consumption as well as international sales.
Production and export objectives
The government’s plan emphasizes maintaining current mining capacities while expanding coal resource development. It also envisions an increased role for coal-producing regions in Eastern Siberia and the Russian Far East, which together contributed 48.3% of national output in 2024. By 2050, this share is projected to grow between 53.9% and 56.7%. According to reports, Russia holds more than 273 billion tonnes of explored coal reserves.
Additionally, the plan sets goals for coal processing and mining techniques. In 2024, processed coal—excluding lignite—accounted for 58.9%. The target range for this metric by 2050 is between 74% and 76%. Open-pit mining, which made up 78.4% of production in 2024, is expected to increase its share to between 82% and 85% under the long-term indicators. The document also details measures related to productivity, technology adoption, safety standards, and environmental protection.
Coal industry development through 2050
Russia intends to implement the plan in three phases. The initial phase, covering 2024 to 2030, focuses on expanding production and supporting the industry. The second phase, from 2031 to 2036, concentrates on coal utilization, processing technologies, and regional logistical improvements. The final phase spans from 2037 to 2050. Oversight of the plan’s execution will be handled by the Energy Ministry, in collaboration with federal, regional, and involved organizations. Regular reports will be submitted annually to the Economic Development Ministry in accordance with government directives.
Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin announced the revised programme during a government session on September 21. This new plan replaces Russia’s previous coal industry strategy through 2035, which was approved in 2020. Novak indicated that the initiative envisions a sixfold increase in the sector’s gross value added by 2050, with an overall multiplier effect approaching 10 trillion roubles. The 662 million tonne production figure remains the target scenario within the plan, rather than a definitive forecast.