ROME / RankWire.AI / – Cereal output worldwide in 2026 is projected to reach 2.98 billion tonnes, representing a 2% decrease compared to the record set last year. The Food and Agriculture Organization noted that this total would still rank as the second-largest harvest ever. This latest forecast is 3.4 million tonnes lower than the estimate provided in July. The year-on-year drop amounts to 61.1 million tonnes, making it the most significant decline since 2018.
The forecast for global maize production is set at 1.309 billion tonnes, following a downward revision due to weaker crop prospects. Prolonged summer heatwaves and dry conditions adversely affected yields across major European Union producing regions, notably France and Poland. Meanwhile, official estimates also led to smaller downward adjustments for India and Paraguay. Conversely, Argentina and Brazil experienced better-than-expected yields, leading to an expected maize output in 2026 that is well above average for both countries.
The forecast for world wheat production has been revised upward to 810.7 million tonnes, an increase of 4.2 million tonnes from previous estimates. Improvements in yield expectations for Canada and Morocco contributed approximately 1.5 million tonnes each to this upward revision. Additionally, forecasts for Russia and Ukraine were raised, whereas dry weather conditions lowered expectations for the European Union and the United Kingdom. Despite this positive adjustment, global wheat production is still projected to be 3.8% below 2025 figures, making it the second-largest crop on record.
Maize declines influence downward revision of global cereal outlook
For the 2026/27 season, world rice production is estimated at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, reflecting a 1.9% decrease from the revised record level of 2025/26. The latest estimate benefits from stronger yields in Sri Lanka and positive developments in Myanmar. These gains offset reductions in rice plantings in China, the Philippines, and the United States, where the area cultivated has fallen to multi-decade lows.
The FAO anticipates global cereal consumption reaching 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, a modest increase of 0.2% over the previous season. The rise is driven by higher consumption of coarse grains and rice, while wheat use is expected to decline from the elevated levels of last season. The projected world rice utilization stands at 559 million tonnes, supported by growth in food demand driven by population increases. Additionally, feed requirements remain a key component of coarse-grain consumption, including barley in China and maize in the United States.
Global cereal inventories stay comfortably high despite slight dip
At the conclusion of the 2027 seasons, world cereal stocks are forecast at 947.2 million tonnes. This figure is 10.7 million tonnes lower than the previous projection but still 1.8 million tonnes above the opening stock levels. The cereals-to-use ratio globally is expected to be 31.6%, down slightly from 31.9% in the prior season. Wheat reserves are anticipated to grow in Russia and Ukraine, while stocks of maize and barley have declined, impacting the overall stock outlook.
International trade in cereals during 2026/27 is forecast at 509.3 million tonnes, an increase of 1.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates. Nonetheless, this volume remains below the record set in 2025/26. The increase is primarily driven by stronger maize exports, with Argentina projected to ship up to 39 million tonnes. The global rice trade for 2026 is estimated at 60.5 million tonnes, though total rice shipments are still 1.9% lower than the 2025 record.
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