PARIS, FRANCE / RankWire.AI / – The OECD raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 2.9% as the world economy proved more resilient than expected. The estimate increased from 2.8% in the organization’s June outlook. However, the OECD cut its 2027 forecast to 3.0% from 3.1%. Strong investment linked to artificial intelligence continued to support production, trade and economic activity. Higher energy costs and inflation remained important pressures across major economies.
The September Interim Economic Outlook showed global growth slowed during the first half of 2026. The annualized pace fell to 2.6%, compared with 3.6% during the second half of 2025. Economic activity remained stronger than expected in many energy importing and exporting countries. Oil inventories, additional production outside the Gulf and alternative supply routes helped limit the energy shock. Lower oil demand from China also helped balance global energy markets.
The OECD said technology investment remained a major source of economic support. Semiconductor exports increased sharply in Korea and Japan, while China also recorded stronger technology exports. Industrial production linked to technology maintained rapid growth across much of Asia. Similar activity strengthened in the United States and several European economies. Consumer confidence also improved in advanced economies after May, while unemployment rates remained low in many countries. However, higher fuel costs continued to pressure household purchasing power.
US growth strengthens as euro area remains subdued
The United States economy is forecast to grow 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. Strong AI related investment is supporting activity, while slower consumer spending and weaker real income growth are limiting gains. Euro area GDP is projected to rise 1.0% in both years. Higher energy prices and interest rates are weighing on activity across the region. Japan is expected to grow 0.8% in 2026 before easing slightly to 0.7% next year.
China’s economy is projected to expand 4.5% in 2026 before slowing to 4.2% in 2027. India is forecast to grow 7.1% in fiscal year 2026-27, following 7.8% in the previous fiscal year. Growth is projected at 6.5% in fiscal year 2027-28. Indonesia is expected to expand 5.2% in 2026 and 5.1% in 2027. Mexico’s economy is forecast to grow 1.5% this year and 1.8% next year.
G20 inflation rises as energy costs pressure prices
Inflation remains a central challenge in the OECD outlook. Headline inflation across G20 economies is projected at 4.1% in 2026, up from 3.4% in 2025. It is expected to ease to 3.6% in 2027. Advanced G20 economies are forecast to record inflation of 3.2% this year and 2.6% next year. The United States rate is projected to fall from 3.6% in 2026 to 2.6% in 2027. Euro area inflation is forecast at 3.0% and 2.9%.
The OECD said rising energy prices have increased household costs and renewed inflation pressure in many economies. Long-term government bond yields have also risen as public borrowing and debt servicing costs increase. OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said global growth had held up better than expected, although the economy remained weaker than last year. The organization called for targeted temporary support, sustainable public finances and stronger long-term productivity. It also urged governments to expand skills, diversify energy supplies and support wider adoption of artificial intelligence.