MOSCOW / RankWire.AI / – Russia intends to elevate its yearly vehicle manufacturing to approximately 2.8 million units by the year 2035, as part of its revised automotive industry strategy. During a sector development meeting on Aug. 31, First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov outlined this goal. The figure encompasses vehicles intended for both domestic consumption and export markets. The plan also aims for 80% of new vehicles sold in Russia to be produced locally by 2035.
The Russian government approved the updated automotive framework on Aug. 24, extending the industry’s strategic outlook through 2035. At the end of 2025, the country’s vehicle production capacity was about 3.3 million units annually. Actual output for that year was approximately 800,000 vehicles. During 2024 and 2025, capacity utilization averaged 25% for passenger cars and 41% for light commercial vehicles, with rates reaching 35% and 43% respectively for trucks and buses.
Under the projected scenario, production is targeted at 2.5 million passenger vehicles and roughly 170,000 light commercial units by 2035. Additionally, the plan envisions manufacturing 110,000 trucks and 30,000 buses. Passenger-car production will be distributed across four or five vehicle platforms, while light commercial vehicles will likely utilize one or two. The entire new-vehicle market in 2035 is projected to be about 3.2 million units, with imports comprising up to 20% of that total.
Production goals encompass all vehicle categories
A secondary, lower-production scenario also exists within the strategy, projecting about 1.69 million vehicles manufactured annually by 2035. In this case, the total new-vehicle market would be around 2.2 million units that year. For 2030, the ambitious target scenario estimates approximately 2.4 million new vehicles, while the more conservative base scenario anticipates a market of roughly 2 million units across all segments.
The framework emphasizes targets related to powertrain technology and innovation. By 2035, internal-combustion vehicles are expected to constitute 67% to 83% of production, depending on the segment. Electric and hybrid passenger cars should secure at least 25% of Russia’s new passenger-car market. The plan also envisions the production of about 150,000 highly automated vehicles with Level 4 autonomy or higher. Additionally, driver-assistance features and digital vehicle systems are highlighted within the strategy.
Capacity utilization and localization remain key focus areas
The existing manufacturing infrastructure in Russia significantly exceeds current production levels. As of 2025, passenger-car capacity was approximately 2.8 million units, with actual output near 700,000. Light commercial vehicle capacity reached about 300,000 units, compared with production close to 80,000. Truck capacity was approximately 130,000 units, and bus capacity hovered around 30,000. In 2025, Russian factories produced roughly 4,400 vehicles equipped with electric powertrains, slightly above the 4,200 units produced in 2024.
The strategy advocates for increased standardization of components and technologies across vehicle platforms through 2035. It also sets more ambitious localization and technological independence targets for domestically assembled vehicles. The comprehensive plan covers passenger cars, commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, powertrains, autonomous driving systems, and digital vehicle technologies. The combined goal of reaching 2.8 million annual units and achieving 80% domestic market share underpins the strategy. An implementation plan is mandated as part of the order authorizing the revised strategy.
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